The statewide graduation rate of 94.4% tells a story of stability. The district-level data tells a story of divergence.

In 2024, 437 of the 1,062 Texas districts with at least three years of data posted their highest-ever graduation rate. At the same time, 260 districts posted their lowest. More than two-thirds of all districts are at one extreme or the other. The middle is emptying out.

The trend is accelerating

The bifurcation has been growing. In 2021, when the state rate dipped after COVID, the balance tilted toward lows: 357 districts at all-time highs versus 321 at all-time lows. By 2024, the highs have pulled away decisively, with 437 at their peak and 260 at their worst. The improving state rate is being driven by the large number of districts reaching new highs, while a smaller but persistent group keeps falling.

What makes this alarming is that the 260 districts at all-time lows are not all small, rural, or charter schools. They include Karnes City ISD^↗ET at 41.4%, Hallsville ISD^↗ET at 67.9%, and Beaumont ISD at 78.2%. The low end includes traditional ISDs that were above the state average five years ago.

The charter question

The most visible split in Texas graduation data runs between traditional independent school districts and charter or alternative schools. The numbers are stark: traditional ISDs averaged 95.6% in 2024, while charter and alternative schools averaged 83.4%. The gap of 12.2 percentage points suggests charters are dramatically underperforming.

The median tells a different story. The charter median of 95.0% is close to the ISD median of 96.9%. The mean is dragged down by a small number of very-low-performing alternative schools that serve dropout recovery populations.

The distribution makes the point clearly. Traditional ISDs cluster tightly between 90% and 100%, with a very short left tail. Charter and alternative schools have a similar cluster at the top but a long left tail stretching down to 0%. The handful of schools at the extreme low end, places like Texans Can Academies (18.5%), Richard Milburn Alter HS (24.8%), and The Excel Center (26.7%), account for much of the mean-median divergence.

The accountability problem

This raises a question that Texas has been wrestling with for years: should dropout recovery charters be measured by the same four-year cohort graduation rate as comprehensive ISDs?

A dropout recovery charter enrolls students who have already failed to graduate on time from traditional schools. By definition, its incoming population has a 0% on-time graduation rate. Moving that population to even 25% or 30% represents significant progress, but the headline rate will always look catastrophic next to a suburban ISD that starts with a college-bound cohort.

Texas's accountability system has made some accommodations, including alternative standards for certain school types. But the headline graduation rate published by TEA does not distinguish between a dropout recovery charter and a comprehensive ISD, and the four-year cohort rate is the metric that makes it into news coverage, school board discussions, and parent decisions.

Of the 26 districts below the 70% crisis threshold in 2024, 22 are charter or alternative schools. Only four are traditional ISDs: Karnes City, Fort Stockton, Hallsville, and Edgewood. The crisis in Texas graduation, to the extent it exists, is concentrated in institutions designed to catch students the traditional system already failed.

What the split means

The growing divergence between highs and lows, combined with the charter-traditional gap, suggests Texas's graduation rate is not one number but two. The traditional ISD system is performing at 95.6%, a rate that would be among the highest in the world by international standards. The alternative sector, serving the students least likely to graduate, produces a much lower rate that drags the state average down by a full percentage point.

Whether this represents a system failure or a measurement problem depends on how you define success: by the rate itself, or by the distance each student has traveled.

The Texas Education Agency did not respond to a request for comment.

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