Not every graduation story in Texas is about decline or stagnation. Two districts, serving very different communities but similar student populations, have posted the kinds of gains that most education systems aspire to but rarely achieve.

Aldine ISD^↗ET, a Houston-area district of more than 84,000 students, jumped 6.2 percentage points in a single year, from 78.4% for the Class of 2023 to 84.6% for the Class of 2024. Donna ISD^↗ET, a 94% Hispanic district in the Rio Grande Valley, posted four consecutive years of improvement, climbing from 89.1% to 96.3%.

Both districts serve populations that statistically predict lower graduation rates: high poverty, majority-Hispanic, substantial English learner enrollments. Both are beating those predictions.

Aldine's non-linear climb

Aldine's path to 84.6% was not a straight line. The district started at 79.0% for the Class of 2020, climbed to 81.1% in 2021, dipped back to 80.0% in 2022, and then fell further to 78.4% in 2023, its lowest point in the dataset.

Then came the 2024 surge. A 6.2-point gain in a single year is rare for a district of Aldine's size. It is the largest one-year improvement among Texas's major urban districts and one of the largest among any district with more than 50,000 students.

The improvement was broad-based. Aldine's Hispanic students, who make up roughly 80% of the district, went from 77.9% to 85.1%. Economically disadvantaged students climbed from 80.7% to 85.1%. At-risk students jumped from 76.5% to 83.2%. English learners posted the steepest gain: from 64.0% to 73.4%, an improvement of 9.4 points.

Whether the surge is sustainable or a one-year correction after a dip remains to be seen. Aldine had been hovering around 80% for three years before the jump, suggesting the district may have changed something fundamental in its approach to graduation rather than simply catching a favorable cohort.

Donna's four-year streak

Donna ISD tells a quieter story. The district did not have a dramatic single-year jump. Instead, it improved every year for four consecutive years: 89.7% in 2021, 94.3% in 2022, 94.4% in 2023, and 96.3% in 2024, gaining 7.2 points off the 2020 rate of 89.1%.

Donna is one of only seven districts in Texas with a four-year consecutive improvement streak. The others include College Station ISD, Lake Dallas ISD, and North Lamar ISD. What sets Donna apart is the starting point and demographics. College Station is a university town. Lake Dallas is suburban. Donna is a Valley district where 94% of students are Hispanic and the vast majority qualify as economically disadvantaged.

The district's English learner graduation rate rose from 83.4% to 96.4%, a gain of 13 points that puts its LEP students above the state average for all students. Economically disadvantaged students went from 89.0% to 96.2%.

What the turnarounds share

Aldine and Donna operate in different parts of the state and serve different community structures. But the patterns in their data share common features.

Both districts saw their broadest gains in the subgroups that typically lag: English learners and at-risk students. In Aldine, the LEP gain of 9.4 points exceeded the overall gain of 6.2 points. In Donna, the LEP gain of 13 points exceeded the overall gain of 7.2 points. In both cases, the districts' most vulnerable students improved faster than the average.

Both districts also improved while the state average barely moved. Texas's statewide graduation rate went from 94.4% to 94.4% over the same period. Aldine and Donna were not riding a tide. They were swimming against a current of stagnation.

In a state where the headline graduation number has been essentially frozen for five years, these two districts demonstrate that improvement is still possible at a meaningful scale, even in the populations where it is hardest to achieve.

Aldine ISD and Donna ISD did not respond to requests for comment.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.