Fort Worth ISD^↗ET, Texas's fifth-largest school district, hit a graduation rate of 81.0% for the Class of 2022, down 4.4 percentage points from its 85.4% rate two years earlier. The COVID-era dip was the steepest among Texas's major urban districts.

Two years later, the rate has recovered to 82.6%. The V-shaped trajectory is real. But the recovery is incomplete: Fort Worth remains 2.8 points below where it started, and 8.1 points below the state average of 90.7%.

The descent

Fort Worth's decline was steady rather than sudden. The rate fell from 85.4% for the Class of 2020 to 84.0% for the Class of 2021, then to 81.0% in 2022. The 4.4-point total decline over two years exceeded the drops in Houston (-0.3 from 2020 to 2022), Dallas (-2.2), and San Antonio (+1.5, which actually improved during this window).

What hit Fort Worth harder than its peers is not obvious from the topline data. The district serves a similar demographic mix to Dallas and Houston: majority-Hispanic, high poverty, substantial English learner populations. One factor may be the district's geographic spread across a large suburban footprint that includes both affluent areas and concentrated poverty, making consistent programming harder than in more compact urban districts.

The subgroup picture

The pattern differs sharply across subgroups. Most followed the district's overall arc, dipping to a 2022 trough and recovering part of the way back. Hispanic students fell from 87.8% to a low of 82.9% and climbed to 84.3%. White students fell from 86.4% to 82.4% and have barely moved since, ending at 82.9%, still below their 2020 level. Black students dropped from 78.6% to 74.3% before recovering to 76.4%.

Two groups broke the pattern. Students classified as English learners rose against the district's downward pull, climbing from 71.3% for the Class of 2020 to 81.5% for the Class of 2024, a gain of more than 10 points. Students identified as at-risk stayed essentially flat, moving from 80.4% to 80.3% across the five years.

Economically disadvantaged students have not recovered. Their rate fell from 84.8% to a low of 79.8% and has climbed back only to 81.8%, still 3.0 points below 2020.

How Fort Worth compares

Among Texas's major urban districts, Fort Worth's recovery from trough is 1.6 points, trailing Dallas ISD^↗ET at 4.6 points.

San Antonio ISD^↗ET recovered 3.2 points from its trough and was the only major urban district that avoided a COVID-era dip at all, improving through the 2020-2022 window. Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio all finished 2024 above their 2020 levels; Fort Worth, El Paso, and Austin did not. Houston ISD recovered 2.6 points. El Paso ISD has barely recovered at all, gaining just 0.2 points from its trough. Austin ISD has not recovered -- its 2024 rate is its lowest in the dataset.

TEA accountability and the path ahead

Fort Worth ISD faces potential state accountability pressure. A district with a graduation rate below 90% and declining trajectories in key subgroups draws scrutiny from the Texas Education Agency's intervention framework. The district has not faced the kind of state takeover that Houston ISD experienced, but the 8.1-point gap between its graduation rate and the state average is the kind of number that attracts attention.

The V-shaped recovery is encouraging. Two consecutive years of improvement suggest the district has stabilized. But the question is whether 82.6% represents a new plateau or a waypoint back to the 85-86% range. The Class of 2025 will provide important data on whether the recovery has momentum or has stalled.

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