Fort Worth ISD^↗ET, Texas's fifth-largest school district, hit a graduation rate of 81.0% for the Class of 2022, down 4.4 percentage points from its 85.4% rate two years earlier. The COVID-era dip was the steepest among Texas's major urban districts.

Two years later, the rate has recovered to 82.6%. The V-shaped trajectory is real. But the recovery is incomplete: Fort Worth remains 2.8 points below where it started, and 11.8 points below the state average of 94.4%.

The descent

Fort Worth's decline was not sudden. The rate fell from 85.4% for the Class of 2020 to 85.7% for the Class of 2021, then plunged to 81.0% in 2022. The 4.4-point total decline over two years exceeded the drops in Houston (-0.3 from 2020 to 2022), Dallas (-2.2), and San Antonio (+1.5, which actually improved during this window).

What hit Fort Worth harder than its peers is not obvious from the topline data. The district serves a similar demographic mix to Dallas and Houston: majority-Hispanic, high poverty, substantial English learner populations. One factor may be the district's geographic spread across a large suburban footprint that includes both affluent areas and concentrated poverty, making consistent programming harder than in more compact urban districts.

The subgroup picture

The recovery has been uneven across subgroups. At-risk students fell the furthest, from 85.3% to 75.3%, a 10-point drop before recovering to 81.6%. Hispanic students followed a similar arc, from 88.0% to 80.8% and back to 85.3%.

English learners posted the most complete recovery. Their rate fell from 82.5% to 74.9% but has climbed back to 82.7%, actually surpassing their pre-COVID level by 0.2 points. White students also recovered fully, from 91.7% down to 87.6% and back to 91.3%.

Economically disadvantaged students have not recovered. Their rate fell from 87.9% to 81.5% and has only climbed back to 84.3%, still 3.6 points below 2020.

How Fort Worth compares

Among Texas's major urban districts, Fort Worth's recovery from trough is 1.6 points, trailing Dallas ISD^↗ET at 4.6 points.

San Antonio ISD^↗ET recovered 3.2 points from its trough and is the only major urban district with a higher rate in 2024 than in 2020. Houston ISD recovered 2.6 points. El Paso ISD has barely recovered at all, gaining just 0.2 points from its trough. Austin ISD has not recovered -- its 2024 rate is its lowest in the dataset.

TEA accountability and the path ahead

Fort Worth ISD faces potential state accountability pressure. A district with a graduation rate below 90% and declining trajectories in key subgroups draws scrutiny from the Texas Education Agency's intervention framework. The district has not faced the kind of state takeover that Houston ISD experienced, but the 11.8-point gap between its graduation rate and the state average is the kind of number that attracts attention.

The V-shaped recovery is encouraging. Two consecutive years of improvement suggest the district has stabilized. But the question is whether 82.6% represents a new plateau or a waypoint back to the 85-86% range. The Class of 2025 will provide important data on whether the recovery has momentum or has stalled.

Fort Worth ISD did not respond to a request for comment.

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