EdTribune TX - Texas Education Data

One in Four Texas Students Now Learns English as a Second Language

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

Half the students in Dallas ISD^↗ are classified as English learners. Not in a magnet program or a single campus, but across the entire district: 70,422 students who need language support services in a system of 139,776. Twenty years ago, that share was 30.6%.

Dallas is not an outlier. It is the leading edge of a transformation that has reshaped every corner of Texas public education. In 2024-25, 1,345,031 students statewide were classified as limited English proficient, 24.3% of all enrollment. One in four. The state added 661,024 English learners over two decades, a 96.6% increase, while total enrollment grew just 26.2%.

The fastest-growing student population in the state

The raw numbers are staggering, but the acceleration since 2020 is what should command attention. Between 2019-20 and 2024-25, Texas added 232,357 English learners. Over the same period, total enrollment grew by just 51,326. English learner growth was 4.5 times larger than total enrollment growth. If EL-classified students had merely held their 2020 share, Texas would have about 220,000 fewer students in language support programs.

The growth accelerated sharply after the pandemic. From 2015 to 2020, LEP enrollment grew by 164,283. From 2020 to 2025, it grew by 232,357, a 41% faster pace. The single largest annual jump came in 2022-23, when Texas added 97,747 English learners in a single year, an 8.3% increase that dwarfed every prior year.

Then, in 2024-25, the count dropped by 869 students, the first dip since the COVID year of 2020-21. At 24.3%, the statewide LEP share ticked down from 24.4% the year before. Whether this is a plateau or a one-year pause will shape the next decade of Texas school finance.

Arrivals, identification, or both

The most contentious question in Texas EL policy is how much of this growth represents new students arriving in schools versus existing students being identified at higher rates. The enrollment data alone cannot answer it, but one metric offers a partial signal.

In 2005, English learners represented 34.9% of all Hispanic students in Texas. That ratio held remarkably stable through 2018, never rising above 36%. Then it surged: to 38.5% in 2020, 43.5% in 2023, and 45.8% in 2024. Nearly half of all Hispanic students in Texas are now classified LEP, up from roughly a third.

If the growth were driven entirely by newly arrived immigrant families, you would expect the LEP-to-Hispanic ratio to remain relatively stable, since both numerator and denominator would grow together. The sharp rise suggests something else is happening: either more existing Hispanic students are being identified as English learners, or newly arrived families have higher LEP classification rates than settled Hispanic families, or reclassification out of LEP status has slowed.

The reclassification explanation has direct evidence behind it. A study by IES's Regional Educational Laboratory Southwest found that the share of Texas English learners reclassified as English proficient dropped from 11.8% in 2017-18 to 4.2% in 2020-21, a decline of 7.6 percentage points. The 2018 redesign of TELPAS, the state's English language proficiency assessment, was a likely contributor. Research from Rice University's Kinder Institute found that among first-graders in the 2018-19 cohort, 83% remained unclassified before middle school, compared to 48% of the 2011-12 cohort.

Slower reclassification does not mean students are not learning English. It means they stay classified as LEP longer, which inflates the count. Immigration is certainly a factor too. Immigration accounted for nearly 57% of Texas's new residents between 2023 and 2024, according to the Texas state demographer. But the data makes clear that reclassification policy, not just new arrivals, is a substantial driver of the headline number.

The suburban front line

The districts absorbing the most English learners are not all border communities. They are the fast-growing suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and Austin where immigrant families increasingly settle directly, bypassing the urban core.

Katy ISD^↗, west of Houston, had 4,678 English learners in 2005, 10.6% of enrollment. By 2025, it had 23,488, a share of 24.5%. Cypress-Fairbanks ISD^↗ went from 10,821 (13.7%) to 24,907 (21.2%). Prosper ISD^↗, in Collin County north of Dallas, saw its LEP count more than quadruple from 956 to 4,316 in five years, its share jumping from 5.7% to 13.7%.

Cleveland ISD^↗, northeast of Houston in Liberty County, went from 47.0% to 62.8% LEP in five years. Alief ISD^↗, inside the Houston metro, reached 58.6%. Irving ISD^↗, between Dallas and Fort Worth, hit 57.5%. These are not small programs operating at the margins of a district. In 54 Texas districts, a majority of students are now classified as English learners.

The charter sector is growing fast on the same axis. IDEA Public Schools^↗ added 16,671 English learners between 2020 and 2025, the largest absolute gain of any entity in the state, and its LEP share rose from 38.2% to 44.8%.

Where the teachers are not

The surge in English learners has collided with a persistent shortage of certified bilingual educators. The Intercultural Development Research Association reports that only 22% of Texas's emergent bilingual students are enrolled in dual language immersion programs, the approach most recommended by researchers for achieving bilingualism and biliteracy. The rest are in transitional bilingual or ESL pullout programs that research consistently finds less effective.

"Bilingual education is more than a quality education program, it is a civil right." -- IDRA policy brief, citing Lau v. Nichols (1974)

Texas's bilingual education allotment, restructured under HB 3 in 2019, provides a 0.1 weight on the basic allotment for most EL program models and 0.15 for dual language immersion. But per-pupil spending has not increased since 2019, according to analysis by the Kinder Institute, even as the population needing services has grown by more than 230,000 students.

The staffing gap is acute in suburban districts that built their infrastructure for a different student body. A district like Round Rock ISD^↗, where LEP share jumped from 10.8% to 19.5% in five years, must recruit bilingual-certified teachers into a labor market where every neighboring district faces the same need.

The twelve largest EL programs

Houston ISD^↗ carries the second-largest EL program in the state at 69,145 students (39.3%), up from 28.5% in 2005. Fort Worth ISD^↗ reached 42.2%. Across the top 12 districts by EL count, every single one saw its LEP share rise over the past five years.

The concentration is notable. Dallas and Houston alone account for 139,567 English learners, more than 10% of the statewide total. Add IDEA Public Schools, Fort Worth, Aldine, Cy-Fair, and Katy, and seven entities account for 280,319 students, roughly 21% of all Texas EL enrollment.

What the first plateau signals

The 869-student decline in 2024-25, from 1,345,900 to 1,345,031, could be statistical noise. Or it could mark the beginning of a deceleration. Border encounters dropped substantially in late 2024 and early 2025, which would reduce new enrollments with a lag. If reclassification rates stabilize or improve under the latest TELPAS framework, exits from LEP status could begin to offset new identifications.

The more structural question is whether the reclassification bottleneck that accumulated 1.35 million students in the LEP pipeline will ease. The enrollment data cannot distinguish a student who arrived six months ago from one who has been classified LEP for eight years. Both count the same in the headline number, but they represent very different instructional needs and very different costs. Until Texas disaggregates its English learner counts by years in classification, the one-in-four figure will remain a blunt instrument for a population that demands precision.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Houston ISD Hits Its Lowest Point in Two Decades

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

Katy ISD^↗ enrolled 44,212 students in 2005. Houston ISD^↗ enrolled 208,454. The suburban district on Houston's western edge was roughly one-fifth the size of its urban neighbor.

By 2025-26, Katy has grown to 95,295 students, more than doubling in two decades. Houston ISD has fallen to 168,812, its lowest enrollment in at least 22 years and a loss of 39,642 students since 2005, a 19.0% decline. The ratio between the two districts has compressed from five-to-one to less than two-to-one.

That compression tells a story about where Houston-area families are raising their children, and where they are choosing not to.

The acceleration

Houston ISD was already shrinking before the Texas Education Agency took over the district in June 2023, appointing Superintendent Mike Miles to overhaul struggling campuses. But the pace of loss has roughly doubled since.

In the two years before the takeover (2021-2023), the district lost an average of 3,630 students per year. In the three years since (2024-2026), that average has climbed to 6,826 per year. The 2025 and 2026 losses, at 7,564 and 7,227 respectively, are the largest single-year declines in the dataset.

A January 2026 report from the University of Houston's Institute for Education Policy Research & Evaluation documented 13,208 fewer students enrolled in HISD as of 2024-25 compared to 2022-23. The report also found that ninth-grade enrollment fell 15.1% in two years and that the share of students exiting for private education doubled from 4.4% to 8.1%.

"The student and teacher populations in Houston ISD are very different than they were before the takeover." — Toni Templeton, senior research scientist, University of Houston

Whether the takeover caused the acceleration or merely coincided with it is not fully separable in the enrollment data. The district was losing students before Miles arrived. But the UH report noted that the 130 campuses overhauled under Miles's New Education System lost students at roughly five times the rate of non-overhauled campuses: 7% versus 1.5% in a single year.

The suburban donut

The losses at Houston ISD are not disappearing from the metro area. They are redistributing outward.

Seven outer-ring suburban districts, all within commuting distance of Houston's core, collectively added more than 199,000 students since 2005. Katy^↗ alone grew by 51,083 students (+115.5%). Lamar CISD^↗ in Fort Bend County more than tripled, from 18,440 to 48,787 (+164.6%). Tomball ISD^↗ grew from 8,730 to 23,271 (+166.6%). Conroe ISD^↗, anchoring the northern fringe, added 32,500 students (+80.7%).

The inner ring tells a different story. Aldine ISD^↗, directly north of Houston, grew steadily through 2012 but has since reversed course, losing 10,985 students (-17.4%) in just five years since 2021. Pasadena ISD^↗ dropped by 3,159 (-6.7%) since 2005. Alief ISD^↗, on Houston's southwest border, has lost 19.9% of its enrollment over the same period, almost exactly matching Houston ISD's percentage decline.

The pattern is not unique to Houston. Urban-to-suburban enrollment migration is one of the most persistent trends in American public education. But the scale here is unusual: the seven outer-ring districts gained a combined 199,328 students over two decades while Houston ISD and three inner-ring districts (Aldine, Alief, and Pasadena) lost a combined 55,967.

A kindergarten signal

Enrollment trajectories are built at the bottom of the pipeline. Houston ISD's kindergarten enrollment has fallen 30.5% since 2005, from 16,239 to 11,294.

The kindergarten class has dropped every year since 2022, losing roughly 700-800 students per year. In 2026, Houston ISD enrolled 4,945 fewer kindergartners than it did in 2005. Because each kindergarten cohort moves up one grade per year, the current class sizes will determine district enrollment for the next 12 years. A smaller entering class does not recover.

First-grade enrollment follows the same trajectory: 18,176 first-graders in 2005, 12,015 in 2026, a 33.9% decline. The shrinking pipeline means that even if the district stopped losing students to suburban transfers tomorrow, overall enrollment would continue falling for years as larger upper-grade cohorts graduate out and smaller lower-grade cohorts move up.

The demographic undercurrent

Not every group has left Houston ISD at the same rate. Black enrollment has fallen 41.5% since 2005, from 60,577 to 35,461, a loss of 25,116 students. Hispanic enrollment, the district's largest group, has dropped 17.0%, losing 20,869 students.

White enrollment, by contrast, is essentially flat: 18,428 in 2005, 18,092 in 2026, a decline of just 336 students. Asian enrollment has grown 42.0% since 2011 (the first year of expanded race reporting), from 6,254 to 8,881.

The compositional effect is subtle but real. Houston ISD's Black student share has dropped from 29.1% to 21.0%. Hispanic students remain the majority at 60.5%, down slightly from 62.6% in 2012. White and Asian students have grown as shares of a shrinking total, rising from 8.8% and 3.1% (in 2011) to 10.7% and 5.3%.

The instructional programs these demographic groups receive carry different per-pupil costs, and a shift in the student body's composition changes the mix of services a district must provide even when the overall enrollment trend is clear.

Funding follows the students out

Each student who leaves Houston ISD takes per-pupil state funding with them. Texas's basic allotment has been frozen at $6,160 per student since 2019, a figure that has lost roughly 22% of its purchasing power to inflation over that period. For a district that has shed 20,478 students in three years, the enrollment decline represents a substantial reduction in annual state revenue, even before accounting for the formula's weighted allotments for specific student populations.

Houston ISD's 2025-26 budget included $24.9 million in cuts and the elimination of 103 positions, on top of 1,400 central office positions eliminated the previous year. The Houston Landing reported that the enrollment shortfall in 2024-25 alone was expected to reduce funding by at least $50 million, nearly $30 million beyond what the district had budgeted for.

"Since [2019], we've had about a 22% to 23% inflation rate, and this has put an enormous amount of pressure on public schools throughout the state of Texas." — Kevin Brown, Texas Association of School Administrators, ABC13

The funding challenge cuts both ways. Suburban districts absorbing Houston's former students are themselves strained. Katy ISD, despite its growth, faces projected budget shortfalls under the same frozen basic allotment. Growth districts must build schools and hire teachers faster than state revenue arrives. Declining districts must close schools and reduce staff while maintaining fixed costs across half-empty buildings.

What to watch

Houston ISD's kindergarten class is now 30.5% smaller than it was two decades ago. That pipeline determines the district's enrollment ceiling through 2038. Whether the current trajectory flattens or steepens depends on two forces outside the district's direct control: whether the state increases the basic allotment above $6,160, and whether the TEA's takeover produces the kind of academic results that convince families to stay.

The UH report documented that teacher retention dropped to 58.6% and that nearly one in five HISD teachers is now uncertified, up from less than 1% before the takeover. If workforce instability accelerates family departures, the next round of enrollment data could push the district further below the floor it set in 2026.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

The Growth Machine Stalls

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

For 15 consecutive years, Texas added students. Every year from 2006 through 2020, the enrollment count climbed, absorbing 1.1 million new students over a period when most large states were already shrinking. The pandemic interrupted that streak with a 120,133-student drop in 2021, but the state recovered quickly, posting a 101,222-student rebound in 2023 and setting an all-time high of 5,530,499 in 2025.

Then 2026 happened. Enrollment fell by 47,195 students, a 0.9% decline, to 5,483,304. It is the first non-pandemic drop in 22 years of data, and it did not arrive as a surprise. Growth had been decelerating for nearly a decade: from gains of 96,574 in 2010 to just 13,035 in 2025. The machine was slowing long before it stopped.

A decade of deceleration

The 2026 decline did not materialize overnight. Annual growth peaked at 121,701 students in 2006, then gradually eroded. By 2018, the state was adding fewer than 42,000 students per year. By 2019, just 31,388. A one-year spike in 2023, when post-COVID recovery inflated the numbers by 101,222, masked the underlying trend. The two years that followed, 2024 and 2025, each added only about 13,000 students, a growth rate below 0.25%.

The 2026 loss of 47,195 is smaller than the pandemic's 120,133-student hit. But the pandemic drop had an obvious external cause and an immediate rebound. This decline has neither.

The state now sits 501,578 students below where a pre-COVID linear trajectory would have placed it. That gap, equivalent to roughly the enrollment of the state's 10 largest districts combined, represents both students who never materialized and growth that will not return.

The Big 5 are all shrinking

Texas's five largest traditional districts are each well below their peak enrollment, and all five declined in 2025-26. Houston ISD^↗, the state's largest, lost 7,227 students in a single year, dropping to 168,812. Since its peak of 215,408 in 2017, the district has shed 46,596 students, a 21.6% decline. Dallas ISD^↗ fell by 5,468 to 134,308, now 16.6% below its 2006 peak. San Antonio ISD^↗ has lost a quarter of its enrollment since 2005.

Fort Worth ISD^↗ is down 22.6% from its 2017 peak of 87,233. Austin ISD^↗ has fallen 19.9% from its 2013 high of 86,233.

Across the state, 517 of 1,197 districts lost students in 2025-26. The top 10 losers alone account for 35,199 students, 74.6% of the statewide decline. The top 25 losers lost 59,717, more than the total statewide loss, meaning hundreds of growing districts merely offset a fraction of the hemorrhaging at the top.

Houston's accelerating exit

Houston ISD's trajectory stands apart. The district's 4.1% single-year decline in 2025-26 accelerated a pattern that researchers at the University of Houston have linked to the state's 2023 takeover of the district.

"Was there a trend of decline before the takeover? Yes. Has that trend been exacerbated by the takeover? We think those two things are coinciding." — Toni Templeton, UH Institute for Education Policy Research and Evaluation, Houston Public Media, Jan. 2026

The UH report found that more than 13,000 students left HISD in the first two years under state management, with the percentage of students leaving nearly doubling from 4.4% to 8.1%. High school enrollment dropped 15.1% in two years, a steeper decline than the pre-takeover trend. The share of uncertified teachers rose from 0.3% in 2016-17 to 19.8% in 2024-25.

The 7,227-student loss in 2026 pushes HISD's total decline since its 2017 peak past 46,000 students, a loss larger than the entire enrollment of Aldine ISD^↗, the district's northern neighbor. Aldine itself lost 4,178 students in 2025-26, a 7.4% drop, the steepest percentage decline among the state's top 15 losers.

Where the growth went

The top of the gainers list reveals a pattern: charter networks and exurban boomtowns. IDEA Public Schools^↗, the state's largest charter operator, added 30,128 students since 2020, a 60.9% increase, reaching 79,608. Prosper ISD^↗, north of Dallas, doubled from 16,789 to 33,651 over the same span.

Among the 2025-26 gainers, seven of the top 15 are charter networks: Premier High Schools, BASIS Texas, Harmony Public Schools (three regions), Great Hearts Texas, and YES Prep. Charter enrollment rose from 422,836 in 2024 to 449,066 in 2026, an 8.2% share of statewide enrollment, up from 7.7% two years earlier. Over the same two-year period, traditional districts lost 60,380 students while charters gained 26,230.

That divergence has a fiscal dimension. Under Texas's ADA-based funding formula, each student who leaves carries per-pupil state revenue with them, but the sending district's fixed costs, its buildings, buses, and central office, do not shrink proportionally. Districts losing 3-5% of enrollment annually face a structural mismatch between revenue and overhead.

The pipeline is closing

Perhaps the most consequential signal in the data is not what happened in 2026, but what has been building for years in the lower grades. Kindergarten enrollment peaked at 391,421 in 2014 and has fallen steadily since, reaching 350,815 in 2026, a 10.4% decline. Over the same period, 12th grade enrollment rose from 305,243 to 394,947, a 34.8% increase.

The lines crossed in 2021, when for the first time, Texas enrolled more 12th graders (362,888) than kindergartners (360,865). In 2026, the gap is 44,132 students: the K-to-12 ratio has fallen to 0.89, meaning the state is graduating students substantially faster than it is enrolling new ones.

The demographic math behind this is straightforward. TEA's own attendance projections note that "the Texas state demographer estimates a significant decline in the number of four-year-olds in Texas, with a loss of over 40,000 from 2020 to 2025." TEA projects statewide average daily attendance will decline 0.31% in 2025-26 and 0.38% in 2026-27. The agency's projected ADA for 2026-27, 4,990,784, would represent a continued contraction.

Reporting from the Fort Worth Report found that a majority of ZIP codes in Fort Worth ISD saw declining birth rates between 2014 and 2023, and that Arlington ISD's kindergarten count fell from 4,610 in 2014 to 3,347 in 2024.

"We are still the fastest-growing state in the country and yet, we are seeing these low numbers." — Rocky Gardiner, demographer, Fort Worth Report, May 2025

Frozen funding meets falling headcount

The enrollment decline arrives at a particularly bad time for Texas school finance. The state's basic allotment, the per-student foundation of the funding formula, was frozen at $6,160 from 2019 through 2025 before HB 2 raised it to $6,215 for the 2025-2027 biennium, a 0.9% increase against six years of cumulative inflation. Districts are absorbing both inflationary cost increases and declining student counts simultaneously.

For the 201 districts now at all-time low enrollment, the formula compounds in a single direction: fewer students means less state funding, but buildings still need heating, buses still need drivers, and debt service on construction bonds issued during the growth years does not adjust downward. The 307 districts that reached all-time high enrollment in 2026, many of them suburban or exurban, face the inverse problem: growth without proportional facility capacity.

Neither group is well-served by a funding formula built on the assumption that enrollment always rises.

What the data leaves unresolved

Charter growth of 13,185 students in 2025-26 accounts for some redistribution within the public system, but home-schooling, private schools, and interstate migration are invisible in TEA enrollment data. The state does not publish a comprehensive accounting of where exiting students go.

The Houston metro complicates any single explanation. HISD lost 7,227 students, the largest single-district decline. But neighboring Cypress-Fairbanks ISD^↗ lost 2,961, Aldine lost 4,178, and Pasadena ISD lost 2,257. The entire metro is contracting, not just the district under state management.

The turn

For two decades, Texas school administrators could plan around a reliable assumption: next year, there will be more students. Bond elections, staffing plans, and facility master plans all embedded that assumption. In 2026, for the first time outside a pandemic, the assumption broke.

The state's school finance system was built on the assumption that enrollment always rises. The basic allotment sat frozen for six years. The 201 districts at all-time lows and the 307 at all-time highs need opposite things from that formula, and neither group is getting them. The 2026 numbers are the first test of whether Texas can govern a school system in reverse.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

One in Four: White Students Fall Below 25% of Texas Enrollment

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

In 2005, more than one in three Texas public school students was white. Two decades later, the ratio is fewer than one in four, and the gap is widening.

White students made up 24.2% of Texas enrollment in 2025-26, down from 37.7% in 2004-05. The state's 5.5 million-student system has added 1.1 million students over that span, a 25.1% increase, but virtually none of that growth has come from white families. Instead, white enrollment has contracted by 325,963 students, a 19.7% decline, even as Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial populations have surged. Texas crossed below the 25% white threshold in 2024-25, and the 2025-26 data confirms this is not a one-year anomaly.

A shrinking share of a growing system

The arithmetic of this shift is straightforward: Texas kept adding students while white enrollment kept falling. Total enrollment grew from 4,383,871 in 2005 to 5,483,304 in 2026. Hispanic enrollment drove most of that growth, rising from 1,961,549 to 2,905,739, an increase of 48.1%. Hispanic students became the majority in 2011 and now represent 53.0% of all enrollment.

Asian enrollment nearly doubled since 2011, growing 89.9% from 168,913 to 320,687 students. The multiracial category, which TEA first tracked in 2011, has grown 141.0% from 78,178 to 188,431. Black enrollment has been comparatively stable, edging up 11.3% since 2011 to 706,912 students (12.9% of total).

White enrollment, meanwhile, has declined every single year since 2005 except one. The lone exception was 2022, when 1,377 white students appeared in a post-COVID rebound. By 2024, the losses had accelerated to 31,481 in a single year, followed by another 31,494 in 2025. The 2026 loss of 20,551 is smaller but still more than triple the annual average from 2011 to 2020.

The suburban ring tells the story

The statewide number is an abstraction. The transformation is most vivid in the suburban districts that once defined white enrollment in Texas.

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD^↗, northwest of Houston, enrolled 38,543 white students in 2005, 48.7% of its student body. By 2026, white enrollment had fallen to 20,879, just 18.2% of a district that has grown to 114,697 students. The district added 35,000 students while losing nearly 18,000 white ones.

Katy ISD^↗, further west along I-10, was 60.6% white in 2005. It is now 24.7% white. Frisco ISD^↗, the former poster child for North Texas suburban growth, went from 69.6% white to 25.9%. Plano ISD^↗, once the state's prototypical white suburban district, dropped from 59.7% to 28.6% while losing more than 18,000 white students in absolute terms.

The most extreme cases are the newer exurbs that diversified as they grew. Forney ISD^↗, east of Dallas, was 78.6% white in 2005 and is 19.4% white today, a 59.2 percentage-point drop. Prosper ISD^↗, north of Frisco, fell from 78.9% to 34.7%.

Where the line moved

In 2005, 506 of 1,229 Texas districts (41.2%) were majority-minority, meaning white students accounted for less than half of enrollment. By 2026, that figure had risen to 720 of 1,191 (60.5%). A total of 239 districts that were majority-white in 2005 have flipped to majority-minority since then.

The crossover at the district level happened in 2013, when majority-minority districts first exceeded 50% of all districts. That share has climbed every year since, accelerating after 2021.

What birth rates and migration explain

The most likely driver is differential birth rates. Non-Hispanic white women in Texas have a fertility rate of 54.7 per 1,000 women ages 15-44, compared to 69.9 for Hispanic women. White births account for just 31.7% of all Texas births, meaning each year's incoming kindergarten class starts with a lower white share than the one before it.

The Texas Demographic Center's Vintage 2024 population projections reinforce this trajectory: all major racial and ethnic groups except non-Hispanic whites are projected to grow through 2060.

"We project that natural change will slow down, and at some point, maybe around 2050, we actually may see natural decline when we will have more deaths than births in Texas." — Dr. Xiuhong "Helen" You, Senior Demographer, Texas Demographic Center

A contributing factor is suburban diversification through migration. The Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metros have attracted large numbers of Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial families, filling new housing developments that a generation ago would have been overwhelmingly white. Districts like Cypress-Fairbanks and Katy did not lose their overall enrollment; they grew substantially while the racial composition shifted.

The acceleration after 2020

The year-over-year data reveals a pattern that predates COVID but worsened after it. From 2011 through 2020, Texas lost an average of about 6,000 white students per year. From 2020 through 2026, the average jumped to roughly 25,100 per year, a fourfold increase.

Part of the 2021 drop of 58,910 was pandemic-related attrition. But even after the partial rebound in 2022, losses of 31,000+ in both 2024 and 2025 suggest a new structural baseline. The 2026 figure of -20,551, while smaller, is still more than triple the pre-pandemic annual average.

One partial explanation is the Texas Education Freedom Accounts program, signed into law in 2025, which will provide roughly $10,000 per student for private school expenses starting in the 2026-27 school year. More than 42,000 students applied on the first day of the program's launch in February 2026. If disproportionately white families use the program to exit public schools, as state fiscal analysts project (estimating 87% of applicants already attend private schools), the ESA program could accelerate public school white enrollment decline beginning next year.

A methodological caveat

The 2011 data includes a sharp discontinuity: white enrollment dropped 75,455 in a single year. That same year, TEA began tracking multiracial students for the first time, and 78,178 students appeared in the new category. The near-exact match strongly suggests most of the 2011 white "loss" was reclassification of students who identified as multiracial under the new categories, not an actual departure from the system. The long-term decline in white enrollment is real, but the slope is steeper than it should be across the 2010-2011 boundary.

The exurban countertrend

Not every corner of Texas is losing white students. Since 2011, 370 districts have gained white enrollment. They tend to be exurban, at the outer edge of metro growth: Prosper ISD added 10,427 white students, Northwest ISD^↗ gained 8,767, Hallsville ISD^↗ 7,683, and Comal ISD^↗ 5,927. These are the newer, faster-growing communities where white families relocating from inner suburbs are building new homes.

But this exurban growth does not offset the broader losses. The top 15 districts by white student gains added about 69,000 white students since 2005; the top 15 losers shed more than 161,000. The frontier is expanding, but it is not keeping pace.

Even Frisco, which has more white students now (16,263) than it did in 2005 (11,220), has seen its white share fall from 69.6% to 25.9% because Asian, Hispanic, and multiracial enrollment grew far faster. Frisco expects continued enrollment declines and school closures over the next five to 10 years as birth rates fall across Collin County.

What comes next

At the current trajectory, white enrollment is on pace to fall below one million students by the mid-2030s, something that would have seemed inconceivable when the 2004-05 count stood at 1.65 million. The school-age pipeline guarantees further decline: white births represent less than a third of Texas births, and the Texas Demographic Center projects that the state's under-18 population will eventually begin shrinking even as the overall population grows through migration.

The more immediate question is what the ESA program does to the composition of public schools. If even a fraction of the program's projected 100,000 annual participants are white families leaving public systems, the 24.2% figure in 2025-26 could look like a plateau in hindsight.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Texas Publishes 2025-26 Enrollment Data

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

A year ago, Texas was still growing. Barely. The state added 13,035 students in 2024-25 to set an all-time enrollment record of 5,530,499, and even that thin gain was enough to keep alive a narrative that had defined Texas public education for a generation: the growth machine always adds. Since 2006, the state had absorbed 1.1 million new students. The only interruption was a pandemic.

Then the Texas Education Agency published its 2025-26 enrollment figures, and the growth machine stopped: 5,483,304 students, down 47,195 from the prior year. It is the first non-pandemic enrollment decline in 22 years of data, and it is not small. The loss is larger than the entire enrollment of Waco ISD. Whatever floor people thought they saw last year was not a floor.

What the numbers open up

The enrollment data covers roughly 1,200 districts, from the state's five massive urban systems to exurban boomtowns doubling every decade. Over the coming weeks, The TXEdTribune will unpack it in a series of data-driven articles. Here is what jumps out first.

White students fall below one in four. White enrollment has dropped to 24.2% of the state total, the first time it has fallen below one-quarter. In absolute numbers, the state has lost 325,963 white students since 2005, a 19.7% decline, even as Hispanic enrollment surged 48% to become the clear majority at 53%.

Houston ISD hits its lowest point in two decades. HISD dropped to 168,812 students, down 46,596 from its 2017 peak, a 21.6% decline. Researchers at the University of Houston have linked the acceleration to the state's 2023 takeover of the district. Every suburban neighbor gained.

A charter network is now bigger than Austin ISD. IDEA Public Schools grew from 659 students to 79,608, a 12,000% expansion. It is now the state's sixth-largest district. But its growth rate just turned negative for the first time.

By the numbers: 5,483,304 students statewide in 2025-26 — down 47,195 from the prior year, a 0.9% decline, the first non-pandemic loss in 22 years, and the state sits 501,578 students below its pre-COVID trajectory.

The threads we are following

More seniors than kindergartners for the first time. Texas crossed a line in 2021: 12th grade enrollment surpassed kindergarten. By 2026, the gap is 44,132 students. The state is now graduating students faster than it enrolls new ones, a pipeline inversion that signals structural decline ahead.

Nearly half the largest districts are at all-time lows. Among the state's top 50 districts, 23 are at their lowest enrollment on record. The top 10 losers alone account for 74.6% of the entire statewide decline. Growth in exurban districts and charter networks is absorbing some of the loss, but not enough.

One in four students is learning English as a second language. Texas has 1.35 million English learners, up 97% in 20 years, the largest EL population in the nation. Growth was 4.5 times total enrollment growth since 2020 — but 2025 brought the first dip.

What comes next

Each of these threads will get its own article with charts, district-level breakdowns, and context. New articles publish Thursdays. The first deep dive, next week, looks at the demographic shift that just pushed white enrollment below a quarter of the state's students.

The enrollment figures come from the Texas Education Agency enrollment portal, accessed through the txschooldata R package. The data covers the PEIMS fall snapshot headcount for public school districts statewide.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.