Frisco ISD - EdTribune TX - Texas Education Data

Nearly Half of Texas's Largest Districts Are at All-Time Lows

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

Seven of Texas's 15 largest school districts are at the lowest enrollment ever recorded. Two are at their highest. The other six fall somewhere between their peaks and their floors.

That split captures what is happening across the state's 1,202 districts in 2025-26: 206 districts sit at all-time lows while 320 sit at all-time highs. The system is not uniformly shrinking or growing. It is doing both, simultaneously, with the fracture running along a predictable line: urban cores are emptying out while suburban rings and charter networks are absorbing the growth that Texas's population boom still generates.

The 206 districts at record lows collectively enroll 1.6 million students, 29.2% of the state total. The 320 districts at record highs enroll 1.4 million, or 25.6%. More Texas students attend a district in freefall than a district at its peak.

A state that stopped adding students

For 15 consecutive years, from 2006 through 2020, Texas added students every single year, sometimes 80,000 or 90,000 at a time. That growth engine was the most consistent in American public education. It made Texas the second-largest school system in the country and allowed the state to defer politically difficult decisions about school funding, because a rising enrollment tide lifted per-pupil revenue even when per-pupil rates stagnated.

That era is over. After COVID erased 120,133 students in a single year (2021), Texas recovered most of its losses by 2023, adding 101,222 students in one year. But the recovery was brief. Growth decelerated to just 13,000 students in both 2024 and 2025, then turned negative: the state lost 47,195 students in 2026, dropping total enrollment to 5,483,304. It is the second-largest single-year loss in the 22-year dataset, behind only the COVID year.

The 2026 decline differs from 2021 in a critical respect. COVID suppressed enrollment across the board, hitting 862 of 1,200 districts. The 2026 drop is more selective: 517 districts declined while 671 grew. The loss is concentrated in large, established districts whose student populations have been eroding for years.

The Big 5 freefall

Houston ISD^↗, Dallas ISD^↗, Fort Worth ISD^↗, Austin ISD^↗, and San Antonio ISD^↗ are all at their lowest enrollment ever recorded. Combined, they enrolled 482,233 students in 2026, down 115,964 from their collective peak of 598,197 in 2015. That loss is roughly equivalent to the entire enrollment of a mid-sized state like New Hampshire.

Houston ISD alone has dropped from 215,408 students in 2017 to 168,812 in 2026, a 21.6% decline. Fort Worth has fallen 22.6% from its 2017 peak. San Antonio ISD has lost a quarter of its students since 2005. The acceleration in 2026 was stark: Houston lost 7,227 students in a single year, Dallas lost 5,468, and Austin lost 3,101.

The losses extend well beyond the Big 5. Aldine ISD^↗, once a 70,000-student district in north Houston, is down 25.8% from its 2016 peak and shed nearly 15,000 students since 2020 alone. North East ISD^↗ in San Antonio has lost 21.0% from its 2014 high. El Paso ISD^↗ has dropped 27.8% since 2011, the steepest proportional decline among the state's largest districts.

In February, state-appointed HISD Superintendent Mike Miles announced plans to close 12 schools for the 2026-27 school year, citing enrollment declines and facility conditions.

"When students are spread across underutilized buildings in need of significant repair, it limits the resources and opportunities we can provide." -- Houston Public Media, Feb. 2026

The closures affect campuses operating below 50% capacity. HISD reported that 23% of its schools are in that category.

Size predicts vulnerability

The pattern is not random. Among Texas's 15 districts with 50,000 or more students, 47% are at all-time lows and just 13% are at all-time highs. Among mid-sized districts (5,000 to 10,000 students), the ratio flips: 39% are at record highs and only 12% at record lows.

The largest districts are trapped in a structural bind. They carry the fixed costs of aging facilities built for enrollment levels that no longer exist. Every student who leaves takes per-pupil funding with them, but the building still needs a roof and the bus still runs its route. A district losing 3% of enrollment annually does not lose 3% of its costs.

Among districts under 500 students, the picture is more balanced: 22% at record highs, 11% at record lows. Small rural districts face their own pressures, but the sheer scale of urban losses dwarfs them in absolute terms.

Where the growth went

While urban cores contract, a ring of suburban and exurban districts is setting records. Prosper ISD^↗, north of Dallas, enrolled 1,599 students in 2005. In 2026 it enrolled 33,651, a twenty-fold increase. Katy ISD^↗ west of Houston has grown from 44,212 to 95,295 over the same period, adding 12,054 students since 2020 alone. Conroe ISD^↗ north of Houston reached 72,757, up 80.7% from its 2005 enrollment.

Charter networks have grown even faster. IDEA Public Schools^↗, headquartered in the Rio Grande Valley, enrolled 659 students in 2005. In 2026 it enrolled 79,608, making it the seventh-largest district-equivalent in the state. It added 30,128 students since 2020 alone, more than any other entity in Texas.

Seven top suburban growers (Katy, Frisco^↗, Cypress-Fairbanks, Conroe, Prosper, Lamar CISD, and Northwest ISD) have collectively more than doubled their enrollment since 2005. The Big 5 urban cores held roughly flat through 2020, then plunged to 82% of their 2005 level. The suburban group has been climbing steadily the entire time, and the gap between the two tracks has never been wider.

Birth rates, housing, and competition

Three forces are converging to drive the urban-suburban split.

The first is demographic. Texas birth rates declined nearly 21% between 2007 and 2019, outpacing the national average. The decline was sharpest among Hispanic women, whose birth rates fell 31% over that period. Because urban cores have higher concentrations of Hispanic families, the birth rate decline hits them disproportionately.

The second is housing. Suburban growth in Texas tracks residential construction, and the state's building boom has been overwhelmingly concentrated in exurban corridors. Prosper ISD's superintendent Holly Ferguson told the Denton Record-Chronicle that the district spends significant time planning for "the future of slowing down," acknowledging that the growth corridor will eventually mature. Forney ISD, east of Dallas, has doubled from 9,000 to nearly 20,000 students in a decade and projects eventual growth to 50,000.

The third is competition from charter schools and, beginning in 2026-27, from state-funded Education Savings Accounts. A Rice University Kinder Institute analysis found that net transfers out of HISD to charter schools increased by 10,000 since 2017, with YES Prep and KIPP alone accounting for half the loss. Statewide, charter-like networks enrolled at least 269,000 students in 2026, nearly 5% of total enrollment.

The Kinder Institute analysis also found that HISD's school-age population dropped 20% within district boundaries between 2017 and 2021, representing 62,000 fewer children. The enrollment decline is not solely a story of families choosing other schools. In many cases, the families themselves have left.

What maturity looks like

Even the growth story has cracks. Frisco ISD, which added 3,000 students a year for 15 years and was once the fastest-growing district in the country, has now lost roughly 3,000 students from its peak of 67,000. The district is considering school closures and has launched open enrollment and virtual programs to compete for students. This is the trajectory that awaits today's boomtowns: Prosper, Forney, and Northwest ISD are building schools as fast as they can, but the housing stock that drives their growth will eventually mature. Homes that produce two elementary students today will produce zero in 15 years.

The Texas Education Freedom Accounts program, signed into law and launching for 2026-27, adds another variable. The program offers approximately $10,000 per student for private school tuition, with applications due March 17. If those students come disproportionately from large urban districts already at record lows, the fiscal pressure will compound.

The question ahead

Texas's school finance system sends per-pupil dollars with the student. The state's basic allotment has been frozen at $6,160 since 2019, and districts losing hundreds or thousands of students each year face a compounding structural problem: fewer students, less money, same buildings, same debt service, same transportation routes. Houston ISD's decision to close 12 schools is the visible edge of that math, and Aldine, Fort Bend, and other Houston-area districts have announced similar moves.

The 320 districts at record highs face a different version of the same problem: they need new schools, new teachers, and new infrastructure, funded by a per-pupil allotment that has not kept pace with construction costs. Prosper ISD has been building schools larger than standard to absorb growth, but capital spending in a rapid-growth district is a bet on continued migration that may or may not materialize.

The enrollment data cannot tell us where the 47,195 students who disappeared from the state total in 2026 went. Some were never born. Some moved to other states. Some shifted to private schools or homeschooling. What the data does show is that Texas public education is no longer a single system moving in one direction. It is two systems, one shrinking and one expanding, sharing the same funding formula and the same political leadership but facing fundamentally different operational realities.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

One in Four: White Students Fall Below 25% of Texas Enrollment

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

In this series: Texas 2025-26 Enrollment.

In 2005, more than one in three Texas public school students was white. Two decades later, the ratio is fewer than one in four, and the gap is widening.

White students made up 24.2% of Texas enrollment in 2025-26, down from 37.7% in 2004-05. The state's 5.5 million-student system has added 1.1 million students over that span, a 25.1% increase, but virtually none of that growth has come from white families. Instead, white enrollment has contracted by 325,963 students, a 19.7% decline, even as Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial populations have surged. Texas crossed below the 25% white threshold in 2024-25, and the 2025-26 data confirms this is not a one-year anomaly.

A shrinking share of a growing system

The arithmetic of this shift is straightforward: Texas kept adding students while white enrollment kept falling. Total enrollment grew from 4,383,871 in 2005 to 5,483,304 in 2026. Hispanic enrollment drove most of that growth, rising from 1,961,549 to 2,905,739, an increase of 48.1%. Hispanic students became the majority in 2011 and now represent 53.0% of all enrollment.

Asian enrollment nearly doubled since 2011, growing 89.9% from 168,913 to 320,687 students. The multiracial category, which TEA first tracked in 2011, has grown 141.0% from 78,178 to 188,431. Black enrollment has been comparatively stable, edging up 11.3% since 2011 to 706,912 students (12.9% of total).

White enrollment, meanwhile, has declined every single year since 2005 except one. The lone exception was 2022, when 1,377 white students appeared in a post-COVID rebound. By 2024, the losses had accelerated to 31,481 in a single year, followed by another 31,494 in 2025. The 2026 loss of 20,551 is smaller but still more than triple the annual average from 2011 to 2020.

The suburban ring tells the story

The statewide number is an abstraction. The transformation is most vivid in the suburban districts that once defined white enrollment in Texas.

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD^↗, northwest of Houston, enrolled 38,543 white students in 2005, 48.7% of its student body. By 2026, white enrollment had fallen to 20,879, just 18.2% of a district that has grown to 114,697 students. The district added 35,000 students while losing nearly 18,000 white ones.

Katy ISD^↗, further west along I-10, was 60.6% white in 2005. It is now 24.7% white. Frisco ISD^↗, the former poster child for North Texas suburban growth, went from 69.6% white to 25.9%. Plano ISD^↗, once the state's prototypical white suburban district, dropped from 59.7% to 28.6% while losing more than 18,000 white students in absolute terms.

The most extreme cases are the newer exurbs that diversified as they grew. Forney ISD^↗, east of Dallas, was 78.6% white in 2005 and is 19.4% white today, a 59.2 percentage-point drop. Prosper ISD^↗, north of Frisco, fell from 78.9% to 34.7%.

Where the line moved

In 2005, 506 of 1,229 Texas districts (41.2%) were majority-minority, meaning white students accounted for less than half of enrollment. By 2026, that figure had risen to 720 of 1,191 (60.5%). A total of 239 districts that were majority-white in 2005 have flipped to majority-minority since then.

The crossover at the district level happened in 2013, when majority-minority districts first exceeded 50% of all districts. That share has climbed every year since, accelerating after 2021.

What birth rates and migration explain

The most likely driver is differential birth rates. Non-Hispanic white women in Texas have a fertility rate of 54.7 per 1,000 women ages 15-44, compared to 69.9 for Hispanic women. White births account for just 31.7% of all Texas births, meaning each year's incoming kindergarten class starts with a lower white share than the one before it.

The Texas Demographic Center's Vintage 2024 population projections reinforce this trajectory: all major racial and ethnic groups except non-Hispanic whites are projected to grow through 2060.

"We project that natural change will slow down, and at some point, maybe around 2050, we actually may see natural decline when we will have more deaths than births in Texas." — Dr. Xiuhong "Helen" You, Senior Demographer, Texas Demographic Center

A contributing factor is suburban diversification through migration. The Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio metros have attracted large numbers of Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial families, filling new housing developments that a generation ago would have been overwhelmingly white. Districts like Cypress-Fairbanks and Katy did not lose their overall enrollment; they grew substantially while the racial composition shifted.

The acceleration after 2020

The year-over-year data reveals a pattern that predates COVID but worsened after it. From 2011 through 2020, Texas lost an average of about 6,000 white students per year. From 2020 through 2026, the average jumped to roughly 25,100 per year, a fourfold increase.

Part of the 2021 drop of 58,910 was pandemic-related attrition. But even after the partial rebound in 2022, losses of 31,000+ in both 2024 and 2025 suggest a new structural baseline. The 2026 figure of -20,551, while smaller, is still more than triple the pre-pandemic annual average.

One partial explanation is the Texas Education Freedom Accounts program, signed into law in 2025, which will provide roughly $10,000 per student for private school expenses starting in the 2026-27 school year. More than 42,000 students applied on the first day of the program's launch in February 2026. If disproportionately white families use the program to exit public schools, as state fiscal analysts project (estimating 87% of applicants already attend private schools), the ESA program could accelerate public school white enrollment decline beginning next year.

A methodological caveat

The 2011 data includes a sharp discontinuity: white enrollment dropped 75,455 in a single year. That same year, TEA began tracking multiracial students for the first time, and 78,178 students appeared in the new category. The near-exact match strongly suggests most of the 2011 white "loss" was reclassification of students who identified as multiracial under the new categories, not an actual departure from the system. The long-term decline in white enrollment is real, but the slope is steeper than it should be across the 2010-2011 boundary.

The exurban countertrend

Not every corner of Texas is losing white students. Since 2011, 370 districts have gained white enrollment. They tend to be exurban, at the outer edge of metro growth: Prosper ISD added 10,427 white students, Northwest ISD^↗ gained 8,767, Hallsville ISD^↗ 7,683, and Comal ISD^↗ 5,927. These are the newer, faster-growing communities where white families relocating from inner suburbs are building new homes.

But this exurban growth does not offset the broader losses. The top 15 districts by white student gains added about 69,000 white students since 2005; the top 15 losers shed more than 161,000. The frontier is expanding, but it is not keeping pace.

Even Frisco, which has more white students now (16,263) than it did in 2005 (11,220), has seen its white share fall from 69.6% to 25.9% because Asian, Hispanic, and multiracial enrollment grew far faster. Frisco expects continued enrollment declines and school closures over the next five to 10 years as birth rates fall across Collin County.

What comes next

At the current trajectory, white enrollment is on pace to fall below one million students by the mid-2030s, something that would have seemed inconceivable when the 2004-05 count stood at 1.65 million. The school-age pipeline guarantees further decline: white births represent less than a third of Texas births, and the Texas Demographic Center projects that the state's under-18 population will eventually begin shrinking even as the overall population grows through migration.

The more immediate question is what the ESA program does to the composition of public schools. If even a fraction of the program's projected 100,000 annual participants are white families leaving public systems, the 24.2% figure in 2025-26 could look like a plateau in hindsight.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.